History Repeats Itself? World War III Fears, Flashpoints and Close Calls

Quick answer: No third world war has happened, despite repeated warnings since 1945. When this article was first written in 2017, three flashpoints were widely discussed: the war in Syria, the stand-off between North Korea and the United States, and the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. History shows that crises between powerful states can come close to a wider war, and nuclear weapons mean such a war would have no real winner. That is why diplomacy and arms control matter.

The world has already lived through two world wars, and both changed the course of history. In the First and Second World Wars, the loss of life ran into tens of millions and the cost was enormous. After the Nazi concentration camps and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, governments wanted to make sure another world war never happened. The United Nations was founded in October 1945 for that purpose.

Close calls since 1945

The UN has not prevented every war. Several crises after 1945 raised fears of a wider conflict:

• The Korean War (1950–53): North and South Korea, backed by China and the Soviet Union on one side and a US-led UN force on the other.
• The Cold War (late 1940s to 1991): a decades-long rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, fought through an arms race and proxy wars.
• The Cuban Missile Crisis (October 1962): a 13-day stand-off over Soviet missiles in Cuba, often described as the closest the world came to nuclear war.
• The Yom Kippur War (1973): a war between Israel and Egypt and Syria that drew the superpowers into a tense confrontation.
• The Norwegian rocket incident (1995): Russian early-warning systems briefly mistook a Norwegian–US scientific research rocket for a possible missile attack, and the Russian nuclear briefcase was activated before the alarm was stood down.

Each time, the crisis was contained. Terror attacks and regional wars in the 2010s led to fresh predictions that another world war was coming and could wipe out much of humanity.

The flashpoints discussed in 2017, and what happened next

1) Syria

In 2017: Syria’s civil war was the main worry. The United States and Russia were both militarily involved in the fight against the Islamic State group (ISIS), alongside many other states and armed groups. Some feared that the two powers could clash directly.

Since then: that direct clash did not happen. ISIS lost the territory it held in Syria, and the war continued for years in other forms.

2) North Korea and the United States

In 2017: North Korea carried out missile tests and expanded its nuclear programme. The United States responded by sending warships towards the Korean Peninsula. Commentators warned that a miscalculation could draw in China, Russia and Japan, all of which are nearby.

Since then: leaders of the two countries met at summits, but North Korea kept its weapons. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) still lists North Korea among the world’s nine nuclear-armed states in its 2026 Yearbook.

3) Kashmir

In 2017: the original article suggested that US President Donald Trump might try to mediate the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. It pointed to his contacts with Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and argued that any sense of US favouritism could raise tensions. It also suggested that China might be drawn in. India has consistently held that Kashmir is a bilateral matter between India and Pakistan, with no role for third-party mediation.

Since then: India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed, fought a brief armed conflict in May 2025. In its 2026 Yearbook, SIPRI noted that during that conflict both sides took steps to avoid escalation.

Who would win a third world war?

The original version of this article argued that the United States would “win” because of its fighter jets, submarines and cruise missiles. That misses the central point about nuclear weapons. SIPRI estimated in January 2026 that nine countries held about 12,187 nuclear warheads between them. On 3 January 2022, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) jointly declared that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”

The original also said it was “evident that another World War is about to occur”. No such war has occurred, and no one can predict one with certainty. The lesson from the close calls above is that communication between rivals, crisis hotlines, arms control and restraint have repeatedly pulled the world back. For what a nuclear war would actually do, read our explainer on World War III predictions and the aftermath of nuclear war. Two earlier pieces in this series are World War III: prediction or reality? and the beginning of a new war by powerful countries.

Frequently asked questions

Has there been a World War III?

No. There have been many regional wars and several dangerous crises since 1945, but no third world war.

Why was the United Nations created?

The UN was founded in October 1945, at the end of the Second World War, to maintain international peace and security and prevent another world war.

What was the closest the world came to nuclear war?

The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 is usually cited as the closest call. The 1995 Norwegian rocket incident is another example of how a false alarm can create danger.

How many countries have nuclear weapons?

Nine, according to SIPRI: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.

This article was originally written in 2017 and updated in October 2026 using SIPRI Yearbook 2026 and the 2022 joint statement of the five nuclear-weapon states. The 2017 views are kept as a dated record.