Quick answer: No. The end of the world did not arrive with the “World War III” predictions this article first reported in 2017. A widely shared claim that nuclear war would begin on 13 May 2017 came and went. The risk of nuclear war is still real, though: in January 2026 the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set its Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. The evidence from Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Chernobyl shows why any nuclear conflict would be catastrophic.
People have predicted the end of the world many times. Some readers interpret the verses of the French seer Nostradamus as forecasting great disasters, usually after the events have happened. In 2017, another rumour spread: that the world was about to spiral into World War III.
The 2017 prediction that did not come true
In April 2017, newspapers reported a claim by Horacio Villegas, a self-described mystic from Texas who said he had foreseen Donald Trump’s election victory. He said a nuclear world war would begin on 13 May 2017, the 100th anniversary of the first reported Fatima apparition, and end in October that year. The original version of this article repeated the claim and said “we are nearing the end of the world”. Neither date brought a world war. Predictions like this rest on personal visions, not evidence, so they are best treated with scepticism.
What really raises the risk of a wider war
The serious worries in 2017 were less dramatic than a prophecy but more grounded. The original article named several:
- North Korea and the United States. North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests in 2017 led to sharp exchanges with the US. North Korea remains a nuclear-armed state today.
- The Middle East. Rivalry between Israel and Iran, disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme, and the Syrian civil war, where the Islamic State group (ISIS) then held territory, drew in regional and world powers.
- Great-power tension. Relations between the US, Russia and China were already strained.
- Scarce resources. Competition for resources such as fresh water was raised as a possible future cause of conflict.
Some of these pressures have grown since 2017. In its 2026 Yearbook, published on 8 June 2026, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that the world held about 12,187 nuclear warheads in January 2026. About 9,745 were in military stockpiles and around 4,012 were deployed with missiles and aircraft. SIPRI lists nine nuclear-armed states: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. It noted that the total is falling only because Russia and the US are dismantling retired warheads, while several countries are modernising or expanding their arsenals. SIPRI also described the brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025, in which both sides took steps to avoid escalation.
On the other side of the ledger, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the UK and the US) declared on 3 January 2022 that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
What a nuclear war would do: lessons from history
Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 1945
The two atomic bombs dropped on Japan in August 1945, near the end of the Second World War, destroyed most of both cities. The Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF), the Japan–US body that has studied survivors for decades, estimates that about 90,000 to 166,000 people died in Hiroshima and 60,000 to 80,000 in Nagasaki within two to four months of the bombings. Survivors faced higher risks of cancer for the rest of their lives.
The original version of this article said the bombs caused genetic disorders “for generations to come”. RERF’s long-running studies say the opposite: no clinical or subclinical genetic effects have yet been found in the children of atomic-bomb survivors. The harm to the people who were exposed was real and lasting; the evidence does not show it passing to their children.
Modern warheads are far more numerous than the two bombs of 1945, and many are far more powerful.
Chernobyl, 1986
The Chernobyl accident was a reactor disaster, not a weapon, but it shows how radiation spreads. On 26 April 1986, an explosion at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine (then part of the Soviet Union) released radioactive material across Europe. According to the World Health Organization (WHO):
- 134 emergency workers developed acute radiation sickness, and 28 of them died within three months.
- About 115,000 people were evacuated.
- The UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation counted more than 6,000 thyroid cancer cases among people who were children or adolescents at the time.
An earlier version of this article said Chernobyl “destroyed the entire population of that area”. That overstated it: the area was evacuated, and much of it is still a restricted exclusion zone, but most residents survived.
So, is the end of the world near?
No one can predict the date of a war, and claims that name one should not be trusted. What the evidence does show is that nuclear weapons remain numerous, tensions between nuclear-armed states are high, and the consequences of using such weapons would be devastating far beyond any battlefield. That is why arms control, diplomacy and crisis communication between rival states matter. For the history behind these fears, read our look at the conflicts that kept the world on edge after 1945, and the earlier pieces World War III: prediction or reality? and the beginning of a new war by powerful countries.
Frequently asked questions
Did anyone correctly predict World War III?
No. Predictions with specific dates, such as the claim that a nuclear war would start on 13 May 2017, have not come true. No world war has broken out since 1945.
How many nuclear weapons are there in the world?
SIPRI estimated about 12,187 warheads in January 2026, held by nine countries. About 4,012 of them were deployed with missiles and aircraft.
What is the Doomsday Clock?
The Doomsday Clock is a symbol set each year by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to show how close humanity is to a self-made global catastrophe. On 27 January 2026 it was set at 85 seconds to midnight, down from 89 seconds in 2025.
Did the atomic bombs cause genetic defects in survivors’ children?
According to RERF, no clinical or subclinical genetic effects have yet been seen in children of atomic-bomb survivors, although the survivors themselves had higher cancer risks.
This article was updated in October 2026 using the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, SIPRI Yearbook 2026, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, the World Health Organization and the 2022 joint statement of the five nuclear-weapon states. The 2017 prediction is kept as a dated record.
